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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd